2014 Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship Betting Preview Tips and Predictions

Abu Dhabi GC, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates 16 Jan 2014 - 19 Jan 2014

Rory McIlroy 6/1

With Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson both in the field in Abu Dhabi it looks like 6/1 are decent enough odds on Rory McIlroy. That little bit of extra value stems from his visit here last year when he missed the cut on +6. That was following his much hyped switch to Nike and his attempts to play the tournament with unfamiliar clubs. Indeed that process took much of the year and it was only at the tail end of 2013 that Rory finally clicked into gear. A good showing at the WGC HSBC Champions was followed by a T5 at the Tour Championship and that much coveted win at the Australian Open signalled he was back. Four top five finishes from 2009 to 2012 including two runner ups in 2012 and 2011 say that Rors will explode out of the blocks and win this week.

Martin Kaymer 14/1

True Martin Kaymer hasn’t pushed on from the promise he showed through 2010 and 2011 but in Abu Dhabi he’s always dangerous. His T6 finish in 2013 was his worst showing in five visits and I put that down in part to being paired with Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods in the opening rounds and his part (albeit minor) in wrongly advising Woods to take relief from an embedded lie in vines; an episode that has triggered much debate since. That aside, the German is the winningmost player in the tournament’s history with three in 2011, 2010 and 2008 (he also was T2 in 2009). Kaymer top 25’d in his last seven events of 2013 and is not far away from a return to the big time.

Branden Grace 30/1

A four time winner in 2012 Branden came up dry last season but I’m betting he’ll bag another win this year. Started the Volvo Golf Champions with a 74 last week and still finished second to Louis Oosthuizen and he’ll be brimming with confidence heading to the UAE this week. Grace birdied five of the final six holes in his last round on this course, shooting 65 and surging to a fifth place finish. Second in putts per GIR last year also tells me he has the measure of these greens; if Branden can bring his game from last week he’s certainly a super each way shout here.

Thomas Bjorn 23/1

I’m expecting a full court press by Tommy in 2014 to make the Gleneagles Ryder Cup team. Backed up his Omega European Masters win with another at The Nedbank in December and is playing some of the best golf of his career. It takes character to recover from a first round of 79, but Bjorn did exactly that in Durban, rallying to a T10 finish. Has a recent best of T3 here in 2011 when Robert Rock won.

Joost Luiten 30/1

The Dutchman seems to have come of age on the European Tour. Two victories in 2013 at The Lyoness and KLM Opens have registered on Paul McGinley’s radar and a solid T3 last week at the Volvo Golf Champions will have strengthened his credentials. Fronted up also at the Tour Championship (solo fourth) when the big money was at stake; I’m liking Joost each way at 30/1 giving that he also rallied in the final round to a T6 here in 2013.

Others On The Shortlist Were…

Obviously Henrik Stenson will be on everyone’s shortlist this week but I took Rory McIlroy for my top bet. Paul Casey is also a former winner and can be had at 40/1 on the exchanges this week. Thorbjorn Olesen has top 10’d the last two years (T2 in 2013) and is available at 55/1; the long odds a function of his poor form at the end of last season. Victor Dubuisson started his season with a T5 and at 23/1 hasn’t the course form of the others but will be on many people’s betting slips.

Past Results

2013

1 Jamie Donaldson 67 70 69 68 -4 -14 274 $437,743

T2 Thorbjorn Olesen 68 69 69 69 -3 -13 275 $228,123

T2 Justin Rose 67 69 68 71 -1 -13 275 $228,123

4 Ricardo Santos 71 72 66 68 -4 -11 277 $131,323

5 Branden Grace 71 69 73 65 -7 -10 278 $111,362

T6 Joost Luiten 70 69 73 67 -5 -9 279 $78,794

T6 Martin Kaymer 71 69 70 69 -3 -9 279 $78,794

T6 David Howell 69 71 68 71 -1 -9 279 $78,794

T9 Jason Dufner 71 69 72 68 -4 -8 280 $45,372

T9 Jorge Campillo 74 68 69 69 -3 -8 280 $45,372

T9 George Coetzee 69 71 71 69 -3 -8 280 $45,372

T9 Anders Hansen 71 71 69 69 -3 -8 280 $45,372

T9 Peter Hanson 73 72 66 69 -3 -8 280 $45,372

T9 Jbe' Kruger 72 69 69 70 -2 -8 280 $45,372

T9 Gonzalo Fernandez-Casta 70 67 71 72 E -8 280 $45,372

T9 Thongchai Jaidee 70 71 66 73 +1 -8 280 $45,372

2012

1 Robert Rock 69 70 66 70 -2 -13 275 $451,131

2 Rory McIlroy 67 72 68 69 -3 -12 276 $300,754

T3 Graeme McDowell 72 69 68 68 -4 -11 277 $139,851

T3 Thomas Bjorn 73 71 65 68 -4 -11 277 $139,851

T3 Tiger Woods 70 69 66 72 E -11 277 $139,851

T6 Matteo Manassero 73 65 71 69 -3 -10 278 $87,971

T6 George Coetzee 71 72 65 70 -2 -10 278 $87,971

T8 Keith Horne 71 71 68 69 -3 -9 279 $58,061

T8 Thorbjorn Olesen 70 67 71 71 -1 -9 279 $58,061

T8 Paul Lawrie 70 69 68 72 E -9 279 $58,061

T8 Francesco Molinari 74 67 66 72 E -9 279 $58,061

T12 Sergio Garcia 71 69 71 69 -3 -8 280 $45,068

T12 Jean-Baptiste Gonnet 68 71 69 72 E -8 280 $45,068

T14 Anders Hansen 71 70 72 68 -4 -7 281 $39,790

T14 Romain Wattel 74 69 69 69 -3 -7 281 $39,790

T14 Gareth Maybin 68 70 72 71 -1 -7 281 $39,790

2011

 

1 Martin Kaymer 67 65 66 66 -6 -24 264 $434,718

2 Rory McIlroy 71 67 65 69 -3 -16 272 $289,812

T3 Retief Goosen 70 71 69 64 -8 -14 274 $146,848

T3 Graeme McDowell 66 70 71 67 -5 -14 274 $146,848

T5 Gareth Maybin 71 67 69 69 -3 -12 276 $100,942

T5 David Lynn 69 68 67 72 E -12 276 $100,942

7 Rafael Cabrera-Bello 71 73 67 66 -6 -11 277 $78,249

T8 Francesco Molinari 71 72 69 66 -6 -10 278 $58,600

T8 Ricardo Gonzalez 72 68 71 67 -5 -10 278 $58,600

T8 Charl Schwartzel 64 71 71 72 E -10 278 $58,600

T11 Jamie Donaldson 74 69 70 66 -6 -9 279 $40,727

T11 Miguel Angel Jimenez 71 71 71 66 -6 -9 279 $40,727

T11 Anthony Wall 73 68 69 69 -3 -9 279 $40,727

T11 Pablo Larrazabal 70 70 69 70 -2 -9 279 $40,727

T11 Scott Strange 70 71 68 70 -2 -9 279 $40,727

T11 Nicolas Colsaerts 72 67 69 71 -1 -9 279 $40,727

T11 Rafa Echenique 69 68 71 71 -1 -9 279 $40,727

2010

1 Martin Kaymer 67 67 67 66 -6 -21 267 $365,000

2 Ian Poulter 65 70 67 66 -6 -20 268 $243,324

3 Rory McIlroy 66 69 67 67 -5 -19 269 $137,094

4 Shane Lowry 68 65 71 67 -5 -17 271 $109,500

5 Louis Oosthuizen 67 71 68 66 -6 -16 272 $92,856

T6 Ariel Canete 70 65 74 64 -8 -15 273 $71,175

T6 Rhys Davies 66 68 72 67 -5 -15 273 $71,175

T8 David Horsey 73 66 70 65 -7 -14 274 $49,202

T8 Anders Hansen 69 70 68 67 -5 -14 274 $49,202

T8 Soren Hansen 72 67 68 67 -5 -14 274 $49,202

T11 Peter Hanson 66 67 70 72 E -13 275 $38,982

T11 Alvaro Quiros 66 70 68 71 -1 -13 275 $38,982

T13 Mikko Ilonen 71 67 72 66 -6 -12 276 $31,609

T13 Anthony Kim 70 70 68 68 -4 -12 276 $31,609

T13 Francesco Molinari 68 68 72 68 -4 -12 276 $31,609

T13 Sergio Garcia 66 67 74 69 -3 -12 276 $31,609

T13 Richard Green 70 65 72 69 -3 -12 276 $31,609

T13 Thongchai Jaidee 69 70 67 70 -2 -12 276 $31,609

2009

1 Paul Casey 69 65 63 70 -2 -21 267 $357,879

T2 Louis Oosthuizen 67 69 68 64 -8 -20 268 $186,503

T2 Martin Kaymer 68 68 65 67 -5 -20 268 $186,503

4 Anthony Wall 67 67 69 67 -5 -18 270 $107,365

T5 Rory McIlroy 66 69 71 65 -7 -17 271 $76,873

T5 Padraig Harrington 71 66 68 66 -6 -17 271 $76,873

T5 Johan Edfors 66 69 69 67 -5 -17 271 $76,873

T8 Sergio Garcia 70 71 67 64 -8 -16 272 $50,891

T8 Danny Willett 71 66 68 67 -5 -16 272 $50,891

T10 Francesco Molinari 67 69 71 66 -6 -15 273 $39,797

T10 Bradley Dredge 71 69 66 67 -5 -15 273 $39,797

T10 Peter Hanson 67 71 66 69 -3 -15 273 $39,797

T13 Phillip Archer 71 71 67 65 -7 -14 274 $33,713

T13 Thongchai Jaidee 69 70 69 66 -6 -14 274 $33,713

T15 Robert Allenby 71 68 69 67 -5 -13 275 $29,031

T15 Soren Hansen 71 66 71 67 -5 -13 275 $29,031

T15 Anders Hansen 70 67 69 69 -3 -13 275 $29,031

T15 Rafael Cabrera-Bello 68 69 69 69 -3 -13 275 $29,031

T15 Graeme Storm 69 64 69 73 +1 -13 275 $29,031

2008

1 Martin Kaymer 66 65 68 74 +2 -15 273 $293,048

T2 Henrik Stenson 67 70 69 71 -1 -11 277 $152,718

T2 Lee Westwood 69 73 65 70 -2 -11 277 $152,718

T4 Richard Finch 71 70 69 68 -4 -10 278 $74,669

T4 Ignacio Garrido 69 70 70 69 -3 -10 278 $74,669

T4 Peter Hedblom 69 70 69 70 -2 -10 278 $74,669

T7 James Kingston 71 68 72 68 -4 -9 279 $48,353

T7 Scott Strange 72 71 66 70 -2 -9 279 $48,353

T9 Ian Poulter 70 70 73 67 -5 -8 280 $37,276

T9 Paul McGinley 72 71 66 71 -1 -8 280 $37,276

T11 Padraig Harrington 72 72 69 68 -4 -7 281 $28,074

T11 Rory McIlroy 73 71 69 68 -4 -7 281 $28,074

T11 Oliver Fisher 72 71 69 69 -3 -7 281 $28,074

T11 Alexander Noren 70 72 69 70 -2 -7 281 $28,074

Odds from Betfair.

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