2014 US Masters Betting Preview Tips Predictions. Expert Picks
Favourites
Ready steady, the 2014 Major season is almost upon us! Those of you who regularly read my previews know that I rarely tip favourites because the pre-tournament prices are just too short for me to risk my hard earned cash and I’m in the business of providing advice that makes you money.
Yes of course you can make a case for Rory McIlroy with his power and prowess, Adam Scott who is in form and even Tiger Woods with his amazing top six record since his last win in 2005 (which I examined in a separate post) but at average odds of 10/1 before the tournament that’s far too tight for me.
Plenty of time for re-examining their odds after two rounds of the event! At this stage, I look for solid each way value and with The Masters paying top six there’s plenty of that to be had.
So it’s time to nail my colours to the mast. Here’s my top five picks, my choice of top debutant, and a couple ridiculously long odds chances.
Doc’s Top Five To Watch
Dustin Johnson 20/1
Dustin Johnson might have seven top 10’s in Majors since 2009 but he has never managed one in four attempts at Augusta. Last year however was his best effort with a T13. I firmly believe though that this season Dustin Johnson is a different animal. So what has changed? Dustin in 2014 has been a revelation with the putter. One glance at his stats proves it; he’s gone from 117th in Strokes gained putting to 10th. He’s up 128 places to second in three putt avoidance with only five in 360 holes played this season.
If you’re still not satisfied I’ll throw in second in driving distance AND greens in regulation for good measure. Johnson also never brought a formline like this into Augusta with seconds at Pebble Beach and Riviera and a fourth at Doral. Convinced beyond doubt he will contend this year.
Matt Kuchar 28/1
Predicting the winner in Augusta has been like predicting the lottery numbers these past few years, but an each way punt on Matt Kuchar is a solid educated bet. Kuch started the season well with a T6 and T8 at the TOC and Sony Open before taking a month off then missing the Riviera cut. He’s lightly raced this season with appearances at Doral, Innisbrook and San Antonio since and you sense he’s building momentum towards the Masters as evidenced by that excellent showing in Texas. Ever present on the leaderboard in the last two stagings with a T8 in 2013 and a T3 when Bubba won in 2012.
Hard to believe that Matt played his first Masters in 1998, winning low amateur then, but this will only be his eighth appearance in the tournament. Throw in his Georgia Tech years studying management also and you might as well put the Green Jacket on him now!
Keegan Bradley 33/1
This one might throw you a little but I think Keegan Bradley will have a much better Masters than last year. Anything has to be better than that Saturday 82 last year right? But credit to Keegan he went out Sunday and shot a 69 to leave with better memories.
Of course he is still learning the track in this only his third Masters appearance but Keegan is a Major Champion and if he recreates the intensity he brought to Bay Hill recently where he finished solo second, he WILL be in the mix. Long batter, high ball flight and very underrated scrambler too, which is vital around these amazing green complexes.
Bubba Watson 25/1
What’s not to like about Bubba Watson for The Masters besides pollen? That 82 at Bay Hill hasn’t put me off in the slightest. Most people see Bubba’s length as his key strength but there’s so much more to like.
His par 3 and par 4 birdie average is among the best on Tour, and he’s statistically the best scrambler from fairway and rough combined. Bringing an even better formline into the event than when he won in 2012 with a T2 in Phoenix, win in Riviera and T2 at Doral. Sure to give you a run for your money.
Zach Johnson 33/1
I have fancied Zach Johnson for another tilt at The Masters for some time. Without belittling the achievement, since winning in 2007 Zach’s record at Augusta has been quite poor by his standards.
This year however has seen a truly dramatic improvement in his par 3 and par 4 performance and if he brings his Texas form with him to Augusta could be one to watch. Twice a winner since last September at the BMW and Tournament Of Champions, expect to see Zach splitting fairways, peppering pins and praising God all over the place.
Newcomer To Watch
Harris English 66/1
There’s lots of young talent in this category with Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed (and some not so young like Jimmy Walker) but I think The Masters will bring out the best in Harris English. Born and raised just 200 miles away in Valdosta, it’s the realization of a dream for English who now lives in St Simons Island, a similar distance south of Augusta. Already twice a winner in just 66 starts, English has three top 10’s this season in Hawaii Phoenix and Riviera and proved too much for Rory McIlroy in the WGC matchplay. Solid of late too with top 20’s at the WGC Cadillac and Arnie’s event.
Long Odds Shots
Trevor Immelman 150/1 (15/1 to finish in Top 10)
Never mind that he doesn’t have the formline of the others, there’s a case to be made for Trevor Immelman finishing in the top 10 or better this week. Making four consecutive cuts from The Honda to the Texas Open has been a huge confidence boost for the South African heading back to the site of his most famous victory in 2008. Four other top 20 finishes at Augusta also add to Trevor’s credentials. His best this season was a T10 at The Farmers.
Bo Van Pelt 200/1 (20/1 to finish in Top 10)
Fourth Masters appearance for big BVP and he seems to love giving it a lash at Augusta. Three consecutive top 20’s in his last three visits (T20 2013, T17 2012, T8 2011) is a very respectable haul and played very well in Texas following on from five missed cuts in a row. I love it when a pro has a Eureka moment!
Past Top 10’s To Help You Pick Your Favourite!
2013
1 x-Adam Scott 69 72 69 69 7 -3 -9 279 $1,440,000
2 Angel Cabrera 71 69 69 70 8 -2 -9 279 $864,000
3 Jason Day 70 68 73 70 - -2 -7 281 $544,000
T4 Marc Leishman 66 73 72 72 - E -5 283 $352,000
T4 Tiger Woods 70 73 70 70 - -2 -5 283 $352,000
T6 Thorbjorn Olesen 78 70 68 68 - -4 -4 284 $278,000
T6 Brandt Snedeker 70 70 69 75 - +3 -4 284 $278,000
T8 Sergio Garcia 66 76 73 70 - -2 -3 285 $232,000
T8 Matt Kuchar 68 75 69 73 - +1 -3 285 $232,000
T8 Lee Westwood 70 71 73 71 - -1 -3 285 $232,000
2012
1 x-Bubba Watson 69 71 70 68 8 -4 -10 278 $1,440,000
2 Louis Oosthuizen 68 72 69 69 9 -3 -10 278 $864,000
T3 Peter Hanson 68 74 65 73 - +1 -8 280 $384,000
T3 Matt Kuchar 71 70 70 69 - -3 -8 280 $384,000
T3 Phil Mickelson 74 68 66 72 - E -8 280 $384,000
T3 Lee Westwood 67 73 72 68 - -4 -8 280 $384,000
7 Ian Poulter 72 72 70 69 - -3 -5 283 $268,000
T8 Padraig Harrington 71 73 68 72 - E -4 284 $232,000
T8 Justin Rose 72 72 72 68 - -4 -4 284 $232,000
T8 Adam Scott 75 70 73 66 - -6 -4 284 $232,000
2011
1 Charl Schwartzel 69 71 68 66 -6 -14 274 $1,440,000
T2 Jason Day 72 64 72 68 -4 -12 276 $704,000
T2 Adam Scott 72 70 67 67 -5 -12 276 $704,000
T4 Tiger Woods 71 66 74 67 -5 -10 278 $330,667
T4 Geoff Ogilvy 69 69 73 67 -5 -10 278 $330,667
T4 Luke Donald 72 68 69 69 -3 -10 278 $330,667
7 Angel Cabrera 71 70 67 71 -1 -9 279 $268,000
T8 Bo Van Pelt 73 69 68 70 -2 -8 280 $240,000
T8 K.J. Choi 67 70 71 72 E -8 280 $240,000
10 Ryan Palmer 71 72 69 70 -2 -6 282 $216,000
2010
1 Phil Mickelson 67 71 67 67 -5 -16 272 $1,350,000
2 Lee Westwood 67 69 68 71 -1 -13 275 $810,000
3 Anthony Kim 68 70 73 65 -7 -12 276 $510,000
T4 K.J. Choi 67 71 70 69 -3 -11 277 $330,000
T4 Tiger Woods 68 70 70 69 -3 -11 277 $330,000
6 Fred Couples 66 75 68 70 -2 -9 279 $270,000
7 Nick Watney 68 76 71 65 -7 -8 280 $251,250
T8 Y.E. Yang 67 72 72 70 -2 -7 281 $225,000
T8 Hunter Mahan 71 71 68 71 -1 -7 281 $225,000
T10 Ricky Barnes 68 70 72 73 +1 -5 283 $195,000
T10 Ian Poulter 68 68 74 73 +1 -5 283 $195,000
2009
1 x-Angel Cabrera 68 68 69 71 8 -1 -12 276 $1,350,000
T2 Chad Campbell 65 70 72 69 5 -3 -12 276 $660,000
T2 Kenny Perry 68 67 70 71 9 -1 -12 276 $660,000
4 Shingo Katayama 67 73 70 68 - -4 -10 278 $360,000
5 Phil Mickelson 73 68 71 67 - -5 -9 279 $300,000
T6 Steve Flesch 71 74 68 67 - -5 -8 280 $242,813
T6 John Merrick 68 74 72 66 - -6 -8 280 $242,813
T6 Steve Stricker 72 69 68 71 - -1 -8 280 $242,813
T6 Tiger Woods 70 72 70 68 - -4 -8 280 $242,813
T10 Jim Furyk 66 74 68 73 - +1 -7 281 $187,500
T10 Hunter Mahan 66 75 71 69 - -3 -7 281 $187,500
T10 Sean O'Hair 68 76 68 69 - -3 -7 281 $187,500
2008
1 Trevor Immelman 68 68 69 75 +3 -8 280 $1,350,000
2 Tiger Woods 72 71 68 72 E -5 283 $810,000
T3 Stewart Cink 72 69 71 72 E -4 284 $435,000
T3 Brandt Snedeker 69 68 70 77 +5 -4 284 $435,000
T5 Phil Mickelson 71 68 75 72 E -2 286 $273,750
T5 Padraig Harrington 74 71 69 72 E -2 286 $273,750
T5 Steve Flesch 72 67 69 78 +6 -2 286 $273,750
T8 Miguel Angel Jimenez 77 70 72 68 -4 -1 287 $217,500
T8 Robert Karlsson 70 73 71 73 +1 -1 287 $217,500
T8 Andres Romero 72 72 70 73 +1 -1 287 $217,500
2007
1 Zach Johnson 71 73 76 69 -3 +1 289 $1,305,000
T2 Rory Sabbatini 73 76 73 69 -3 +3 291 $541,333
T2 Retief Goosen 76 76 70 69 -3 +3 291 $541,333
T2 Tiger Woods 73 74 72 72 E +3 291 $541,333
T5 Jerry Kelly 75 69 78 70 -2 +4 292 $275,500
T5 Justin Rose 69 75 75 73 +1 +4 292 $275,500
T7 Padraig Harrington 77 68 75 73 +1 +5 293 $233,812
T7 Stuart Appleby 75 70 73 75 +3 +5 293 $233,812
9 David Toms 70 78 74 72 E +6 294 $210,250
T10 Paul Casey 79 68 77 71 -1 +7 295 $181,250
T10 Luke Donald 73 74 75 73 +1 +7 295 $181,250
T10 Vaughn Taylor 71 72 77 75 +3 +7 295 $181,250
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